This year marks the 10th anniversary of The Game Awards, and in that time Geoff Keighley’s annual event has established itself quite firmly as the leading awards ceremony for the game industry — the Oscars of gaming. It remains promotionally overstuffed to the point that it’s still arguably better known for trailers than awards, but that’s changing. And although its winners tend to be pretty conservative, they are broadly representative of the critical consensus. Its voting body is composed of a wide range of international games media, so the chances are your favorite publications’ and critics’ picks factor into The Game Awards. (Polygon’s do.)

The top prize of the night is, of course, Game of the Year — and there are clear indicators of what makes a Game of the Year at The Game Awards, based on a decade of data. On Nov. 18, The Game Awards announced the nominees for this and all the other categories, mostly confirming those indicators. Still, it’s a particularly open race in 2024, with no cut-and-dried frontrunner. Below, after crunching numbers and taking temperatures, we pick the likely Game of the Year winner and rank the rest of the six nominees in order of their likeliness to win. We’ll find out if we got it right when the winner is announced at The Game Awards on Dec. 12.

Update (Dec. 9): In our final update before the awards ceremony, we predict the winners of the genre categories: Best Action Game, Action/Adventure Game, Role-Playing Game, Fighting Game, Family Game, Sim/Strategy Game, Sports/Racing Game, and VR/AR Game. Check out our predictions below the ranked list of GOTY nominees. We can now also finalize our predicted tallies for award winners:

And where does the GOTY race stand in its final days? Every indicator seems to confirm Astro Bot’s status as favorite to win, from prediction markets to early awards from individual outlets — some of which, including Polygon, are TGA jury members. These same indicators also suggest stronger momentum for Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth and Black Myth: Wukong than Metaphor: ReFantazio and the other nominees. (However, I still think Black Myth’s position is overstated; it’s just not a critics’ game, and TGA’s jury is predominantly made up of critics.)

What’s going to win GOTY?

Why it could win: With a 94 Metascore at time of writing, Team Asobi’s delightful platform game enjoys the strongest critical consensus of any game this year (and rightly so) bar Elden Ring’s Shadow of the Erdtree expansion. It’s also technically dazzling, which is historically a strong plus in GOTY consideration.

Weaknesses: Games nominated in the Family category, as Astro Bot is, very rarely break through in the main competition. However, it also scored a nomination in the Action/Adventure category, which has been the source of lots of past winners.

Momentum (holding steady): Astro Bot has united a broad swath of critics and fans like no other game this year; its quality is self-evident, its vibe is upbeat and totally unproblematic, and few critics are immune to its naked nostalgia appeal. At seven nominations, it’s tied with Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth as the most-nominated game. In a confusing year, it’s looking like the default choice, and the game to beat so far.

The rest of the GOTY nominees, ranked

Why it could win: As a big production from a famous series in a favored genre, with strong story and performance elements and a 90-plus Metacritic rating, Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth has no peer this year. The game also benefits from rabid fan support in the PlayStation community (it’s a PS5 exclusive), and it won Most Anticipated in 2023.

Weaknesses: Sales were slightly underwhelming, according to publisher Square Enix itself, and the critical consensus around it is not quite as unanimous as that 92 Metascore would suggest.

Momentum (📈 from No. 3): For a while it seemed outmaneuvered by Metaphor: ReFantazio’s recency bias and greater critical cred, but Rebirth has bounced back with a strong set of nominations, including in the key Game Direction, Performance, and Narrative categories. It will likely benefit from support in the public vote, too.

Why it could win: The distinctive role-playing games of Atlus’ Studio Zero have been critical darlings for a long time, but Persona 5 (which was nominated for GOTY and won Best RPG in 2017) propelled them to a new level of popularity and acclaim. Now Metaphor is here to ride that wave. With solid game mechanics, strong storytelling, and memorable characters in a favored genre, this could be the moment Atlus’ brand of RPGs outshines genre stalwart Final Fantasy. Despite not having Persona brand recognition, it’s already Atlus’ fastest-selling game, too.

Weaknesses: Despite their rising popularity, Atlus’ games still operate in more of an expanding niche than in the mainstream, and the old-school turn-based combat is a turn-off for some (though you might have said similar about last year’s winner, Baldur’s Gate 3).

Momentum (📉 from No. 2): Metaphor’s Metascore has settled at an amazing 94, and it’s such a substantial game that most critics who committed to it are still deep in the weeds, discovering the delicious complexities of its late-game battle system. It has six nominations, second only to Astro Bot and Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth. But now that public voting enters the mix, its slightly less broad appeal might hurt it.

Why it could win: This Chinese action-adventure is a big technical showpiece in a favored genre, and it seems to have strong popular support: In GOTY discussions online, it is one of the two most-mentioned games, alongside FF7 Rebirth. Even though the public vote only counts for 10% of the final vote, these vocal fans are sure to rally around it.

Weaknesses: With an 81 Metascore, Black Myth: Wukong is at the lower end of critical consensus when it comes to Game of the Year nominees. And while it’s a massive seller, much of its audience seems to be in China, which only has a small presence on the visible voting jury. Developer Game Science is politically controversial, which might deter some voters, too.

Momentum (holding steady): Wukong is a true dark horse, overcoming a measure of critical snobbery to earn China its first GOTY nomination and delight its legion of fans. That fanbase is clearly activated enough to push it to a surprise win in the Ultimate Game of the Year category at the 100% public-voted Golden Joystick Awards.

Why it could win: In terms of indie darlings, poker roguelike Balatro is right up there with the likes of Animal Well and UFO 50, with a 90 Metascore. It’s also more widely and consistently played — not only is it popular, but the people who like it are probably still playing it, and unlikely to stop before voting. It might be the stickiest game of the year.

Weaknesses: It’s a purely systemic card game with zero narrative elements, something that does not historically go over well at The Game Awards. There’s also a question mark over how broad its international appeal is, an important factor for TGA’s diverse voting jury.

Momentum (holding steady): Balatro’s convenient new mobile version has arrived at the perfect moment to remind the jury why they couldn’t stop playing it back in February. And it has overperformed in terms of nominations, with five under its belt — including in Game Direction, where games of its type rarely if ever appear. Not to be ruled out.

Why it could win: Shadow of the Erdtree is a major expansion to the game that won GOTY in 2022. It’s also the single best-reviewed release of the year, still in the top spot on Metacritic’s list, although Astro Bot and Metaphor have since equalized with it. The reverence people have for Elden Ring and the FromSoftware project in general is still a force to be reckoned with.

Weaknesses: It’s an expansion. Its eligibility for Game of the Year came as a surprise to some members of the voting jury — but setting that aside, the perception of it as something additional, rather than a wholly new work, will definitely hold it back.

Momentum (holding steady): Erdtree has secured four nominations, including for Best Role-Playing Game, and muscled its way much further toward the front of the pack than we thought possible for a DLC.

What’s going to win the other categories?

Often one of the weaker genre categories, Action Game is dominated by first-person shooters — a kind of game that critics seem to regard as past its prime, going by reviews over the past few years — and combat games. But this year there’s a very strong field, including fan favorite Space Marine 2, online sensation Helldivers 2, and the best Call of Duty campaign in a long time. Still, there’s no doubt that Black Myth: Wukong, the only Action Game nominee also to make it into the GOTY category, will win.

Best Action/Adventure Game

Typically, Action/Adventure games (as defined by TGA’s jury) make up the majority of GOTY nominees, but not this year. Astro Bot is not only the only GOTY nominee in the category, it has a huge 8-point Metascore lead over its closest rivals in the category, Prince of Persia: The Lost Crown and Bloober Team’s Silent Hill 2 remake. An easy win for Team Asobi’s game.

This might be the single hardest category to call, with three of the five nominees also contending for Game of the Year. The jury has likely been deterred by the controversy surrounding Shadow of the Erdtree’s GOTY nomination from voting for it, but Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth and Metaphor: ReFantazio are locked in a neck-and-neck race. The latter has a slightly stronger critical reputation, but Rebirth’s broader appeal might carry it over the line. Really, this could go either way. (And if you’re wondering how I can predict wins for Metaphor in Game Direction and Narrative but not in its genre category — the same thing happened in 2023 with Alan Wake 2, which lost in Action/Adventure.)

Not a tough one to call: In this niche category, Tekken 8, a great new entry in one of the most famous and beloved fighting game franchises, blows its rivals out of the water in terms of fame and broad appeal — and it has them licked on critical reception too, with a strong 90 Metascore.

You could call Best Family Game the Nintendo award; the Kyoto company has won this category seven times out of 10 (eight, if you count Pokémon Go’s 2016 win), and the situation this year with Nintendo fielding three out of five nominees is not unusual at all. (In 2019, all five were Nintendo games.) Nevertheless, Nintendo is set for a rare loss this year, because GOTY favorite Astro Bot, which has an 8-point Metascore lead on closest rival Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom, is a lock.

One of the more open races at the 2024 game awards. These are five very different games, all with a strong critical reputation, and none with a particular advantage in terms of branding or nominations in other categories. The jury is historically unafraid to pick non-traditional strategy games in this category, too. The solo-developer sensation Manor Lords has a great story, but its early access status counts against it. Unicorn Overlord has a slight edge in reviews, but I think Frostpunk 2 is more widely played, so I’m predicting 11 Bit Studios’ game will win.

Here’s a curiosity; the Sports/Racing category is almost always won by a mainstream racing game. In 10 years, the only exception is a win for the Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater remasters; Forza games have won this award five times. But with only F1 24 representing racing this year, the jury is finally forced to choose from a selection of annualized, licensed sports games. Obvious choice EA Sports College Football 25 isn’t even nominated (probably due to the international voting body’s lack of connection to the sport), so in its absence I am predicting the win will go to the only one of these games with a Metascore over 80: WWE2K24.

The fight in this category is between the only two nominees to get a Metascore in the 80s: Asgard’s Wrath 2 and Batman: Arkham Shadow. Typically, the Game Awards jury favors famous franchises that have been ported to VR, like the Resident Evil games. However, in this instance, the hype around Asgard’s Wrath 2 as a new standard-bearer of sorts for VR games probably pushes it over the line.

This category, which rewards “outstanding creative vision and innovation in game direction and design,” has been expanded from five to six nominees, so it now perfectly maps onto the Game of the Year contenders. But the favorite to win GOTY, Astro Bot in this case, isn’t guaranteed to succeed here as well — the jury sometimes goes a different way, rewarding something a little more heady and high-concept than the GOTY winner (e.g., Death Stranding beating GOTY Sekiro in 2019). Metaphor seems to fit the bill best this year.

Although there’s often a strong crossover between Best Narrative and Game of the Year, the same game has only won both once (The Last of Us Part 2 in 2020). It’s an unpredictable category that is as likely to reward blockbuster comedy (2021’s Guardians of the Galaxy) as indie experimentalism (2019’s Disco Elysium). It’s tough to predict a winner from this year’s selection, though Metaphor probably takes the biggest narrative swings — if the voting jury has got far enough into the game to find them.

The history of Best Art Direction winners is strange: The first four were all striking indies like Cuphead and Return of the Obra Dinn, while the following five have all been polished, visually creative AAA games like Control and Ghost of Tsushima. From these nominees, Astro Bot’s densely detailed, witty, and adorable environment and character art makes it perhaps the most likely winner, though you can make a case for any of them (indeed, Elden Ring already won the category in 2022).

Another strong category. Astro Bot and Metaphor both have particularly memorable music that will probably still be earworming its way around the jury’s heads. But Final Fantasy’s lush, orchestral scores remain the platonic ideal of “good video game music,” and the series has won twice before, with Final Fantasy 16 in 2023 and Final Fantasy 7 Remake in 2020. The jury won’t pass up another chance to reward the legendary Nobuo Uematsu, who has a co-composer credit on Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth.

Two nominees leap out in this category: Astro Bot, with its innovative use of the DualSense controller’s speaker to bring the game’s tactile world to life; and Hellblade 2’s dense, evocative mental soundscapes, which use binaural audio to capture the voices swirling around protagonist Senua’s head. Astro Bot has the edge, because it’s more widely played and it has more novelty value.

TGA’s jury has a tendency to give this award to the actor playing the most memorable and/or famous character — which is not to belittle the talent of the likes of Nolan North (Nathan Drake in Uncharted), Roger Clark (Arthur Morgan in Red Dead Redemption 2), or Maggie Robertson (Lady Dimitrescu in Resident Evil Village) at all. Melina Juergens has already won this award for playing Senua in the first Hellblade, so Briana White’s Aerith looks like the likeliest winner this year.

For once, everything you need to define success in this category is laid out by The Game Awards in its description: “Recognizing a game for outstanding community support, transparency and responsiveness, inclusive of social media activity and game updates/patches.” Good-humored and open communication combined with a brisk patching schedule will win the day. Any of these games would be a worthy winner, but Helldivers 2 stands out for the way Arrowhead Game Studios handled its explosion onto the scene — not despite some controversy, but because of how well it was handled.

There’s very little chance that LocalThunk isn’t taking home the award for Best Indie Game on Dec. 12. It stands to reason that the only indie game to crack into Game of the Year will have enough support from the jury to top the indie category: Every time an indie game has been nominated for GOTY before — Inside in 2016, Celeste in 2018, Hades in 2020, and Stray in 2022 — it’s gone this way. Chalk this one up for Balatro.

Here’s another Balatro win you can lock in straight away. If you think the jury might feel motivated to spread the love and award, say, Animal Well in this category, think again. Every time the eventual Independent Game winner has been nominated for Debut as well, it’s won both: Cuphead in 2017, Disco Elysium in 2019, Kena: Bridge of Spirits in 2021, and Stray in 2022. Once again, the precedents could not be more clear.

Games for Impact is one of the hardest categories to predict — in part because it’s so poorly understood. TGA defines it as “for a thought-provoking game with a pro-social meaning or message,” but it’s up to the jury to interpret what this means and how to quantify it. There’s plenty of pedigree in the lineup: the Life Is Strange series is a two-time winner of this award, Neva developer Nomada Studio has won it before with Gris, and the first Hellblade won in 2017. Closer the Distance is the kind of moving, personal story that the jury tends to favor. But I’m predicting Hellblade 2 will win for the simple reason that it’s probably the most recognizable name to the largest number of jury voters.

The Game Awards’ most stable category, intended to reward live-service games, settled down a bit after 2023’s surprise win for interloper Cyberpunk 2077. Fortnite and FF14 have both won it twice, while Destiny 2 is on its sixth nomination without a win. But I think the jury will be keen to pick a fresh new entrant, and they can vote for Helldivers 2 in Multiplayer. Diablo 4 has a great story this year, with both its game-redefining Loot Reborn season and a strong expansion in Vessel of Hatred, so it’s my prediction.

I can’t see the jury passing up the opportunity to reward one of the most sensational breakout successes of the year, Helldivers 2. The rest of the field looks either staid or incidental next to Arrowhead Game Studios’ viral hit, and the TGA voting jury loves to pick a co-op game for Best Multiplayer when one is nominated.

The same logic that makes Balatro an inevitable winner in the Independent category also applies here. With enough support to get nominated for GOTY, it will surely walk a less important category — and this one is less competitive than the indie awards. Mark my words, Balatro is going home with three awards.

The race for this award, for the best adaptation of video games in other media, is surely between Prime Video’s Fallout and Netflix’s League of Legends-based animated series Arcane. Arcane is the more critically acclaimed of the two, but Fallout is the highest-profile, and has probably been watched by the most jury members. In a tight race, Fallout is my prediction.

This award is even more locked-in than Balatro’s Best Indie win. In this 100% fan-voted category, there is no chance that Grand Theft Auto 6 doesn’t prevail. In fact, Rockstar could probably take home its 2025 GOTY award now, as well — if only it could guarantee the game is actually coming out next year.

Players’ Voice is another 100% fan-voted category. Voting takes place over three rounds, starting on Dec. 2 with 30 nominees. These have now been whittled down to five — four of which are from China, an interesting twist. As proved by its surprise Game of the Year win in another public vote at the Golden Joystick Awards, Black Myth: Wukong has the most activated fan base of any of this year’s frontrunning games, so it seems destined to win.

The Game Awards winners will be revealed during the show on Dec. 12.